The hazard in using probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

Earthquake experts rely on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for everything from emergency-response planning to development of building codes. Unfortunately, says the author, the analysis is defective for the large earthquakes that pose the greater risks. Structures have short lifetimes and the distance over which earthquakes cause damage are relatively small. Exceptions serve to prove the rule. To be useful in engineering, earthquakes hazard assessment must focus narrowly in both time and space