Spatial patterning of chlorophyll a and water-quality measurements for determining environmental thresholds for local eutrophication in the Nakdong River basin

Highlights: • Spatio-temporal patterns of water quality were determined using Geo-SOM. • Regional variations were addressed by LMMs with random effects of Geo-SOM clusters. • Thresholds of TP and BOD for algal abundances were calculated using LMMs. • Region-specific management is required for heterogeneous algal biomass responses. Management of water-quality in a river ecosystem needs to be focused on susceptible regions to eutrophication based on proper measurements. The stress–response relationships between nutrients and primary productivity of phytoplankton allow the derivation of ecologically acceptable thresholds of stressors under field conditions. However, spatio-temporal variations in heterogeneous environmental conditions have hindered the development of locally applicable criteria. To address these issues, we utilized a combination of a geographically specialized artificial neural network (Geo-SOM, geo-self-organizing map) and linear mixed-effect models (LMMs). The model was applied to a 24-month dataset of 54 stations that spanned a wide spatial gradient in the Nakdong River basin. The Geo-SOM classified 1286 observations in the basin into 13 clusters that were regionally and seasonally distinct. Inclusion of the random effects of Geo-SOM clustering improved the performance of each LMM, which suggests that there were significant spatio-temporal variations in the Chla–stressor relationships. These variations arise owing to differences in background seasonality and the effects of local pollutant variables and land-use patterns. Among the 16 environmental variables, the major stressors for Chla were total phosphate (TP) as a nutrient and biological oxygen demand (BOD) as a non-nutrient according to the results of both Geo-SOM and LMM analyses. Based on LMMs with the random effect of the Geo-SOM clusters on the intercept and the slope, we can propose recommended thresholds for TP (18.5 μg L⁻¹) and BOD (1.6 mg L⁻¹) in the Nakdong River. The combined method of LMM and Geo-SOM will be useful in guiding appropriate local water-quality-management strategies and in the global development of large-scale nutrient criteria.