Economic impacts of Alberta's oil sands, volume 1

In 2004, the international media recognized Alberta's oil sands as part of the global oil reserves, thereby establishing Canada as second to Saudi Arabia as potential oil producing nations. The economic impacts of Alberta's oil sands industry on economies were assessed at regional, provincial and international levels for the 2000 to 2020 period. A customized input-output model was used to assess economic impacts, which were measured in terms of changes in gross domestic product; employment and labour income; and, government revenues. Cumulative impacts on employment by sector and by jurisdiction were also presented. An investment of $100 billion is expected through 2020, resulting in production of crude bitumen and synthetic crude oil outputs valued at about $531 billion. The impact of the oil sands industry on local employment was also evaluated. It was shown that activities in the oil sands industry will lead to significant economic impact in Alberta, Ontario, Quebec and the rest of Canada. Alberta's local economy would be the main beneficiary of oil sands activities with nearly 3.6 million person years employment created in Alberta during the 2000 to 2020. Another 3 million person years employment would be created in other Canadian provinces and outside Canada during the same time period. A sensitivity analysis on the responsiveness to oil prices and the removal of various constraints incorporated in the main analysis was also presented. The federal government will be the largest recipient of revenues generated to to oil sands activities. The results of the study were compared with that of the National Task Force on Oil Sands Strategies. This first volume revealed the results of the study while the second volume includes the data and detailed results. 48 refs., 57 tabs., 28 figs