A spatial analysis of evacuation intentions at the Shoreham nuclear power station

The evidence presented in this chapter suggests that decisions regarding the most appropriate actions to take during a radiological emergency are likely to be made at the individual household level and cannot be imposed on the population by governmental fiat. In light of this fact, two strategies are likely to enhance evacuation planning for radiological emergencies. First, federal, state and local emergency response planners should (1) accept the fact that human behavior cannot be controlled; (2) try to determine how the population is likely to react, and (3) capitalize on these behaviors by building them into the emergency response plans. Results of the Shoreham Evacuation Survey suggest, for example, that the ten mile (16 km) EPZ currently required by the NRC and FEMA should be extended to 25 miles (40 km) at the SNPS, in part accommodate the likely high degree of ''spontaneous evacuation,'' and in part to ensure that public exposure to radiation is minimal, in case of a radiological emergency at the plant. Second, emergency response planners also need to educate people about the importance of following directions in the event of a nuclear power plant accident. In the case of the SNPS, for example, the education program should be aimed not only at the zip code zones further from and west of the plant in which families (primarily young and with children) are likely to spontaneously evacuate (over-reactors), and also at those zones closer to and east of the plant in which the residents (primarily older and without children) may be included to ignore official orders to evacuate (under-reactors). These are the groups that either endanger society by congesting travel arteries (over-reactors) or themselves by remaining in place (under-reactors)