Methanol: Meeting transportation fuel demand

The long term outlook for methanol supply and demand is forecast, with reference to resources and price/economics. The emphasis is on methanol made from its predominant raw material, natural gas. In the 1980s, methanol supply exceeded demand, and North America is currently a net exporter of methanol. Of the 7 million tonnes of supply, Canada accounts for just over 2 million. One forecast suggests that there will be a world supply deficit of ca 800,000 tonnes by 1994. Two factors will contribute to methanol growth: the potential of methanol as a raw material for methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and the demand for methanol for fuel. Growth in MTBE demand is immediate, while growth in fuel methanol demand is not expected until well past 1994. The supposed deficit could be met by new supply in Latin America, the Caribbean, and the USA, but a focus is placed on methanol from Canada. Possibilities for increasing Canada's methanol supply include incremental expansion of existing facilities, twinning of existing methanol units, and conversion of existing ammonia facilities. It is shown that the production and transport cost of producing methanol in Alberta and shipping to Toronto would be sufficiently low to make a 15% gasoline/methanol blend competitive with regular gasoline and reformulated gasoline. 2 refs., 1 fig., 4 tabs