Resampling with neural networks for stochastic parameterization in multiscale systems

Highlights: • A new methodology for stochastic parameterization of unresolved processes. • Combination of resampling and probabilistic classification with neural networks. • Incorporating memory in the parameterization. • Good performance on a test model from atmospheric science. In simulations of multiscale dynamical systems, not all relevant processes can be resolved explicitly. Taking the effect of the unresolved processes into account is important, which introduces the need for parameterizations. We present a machine-learning method, used for the conditional resampling of observations or reference data from a fully resolved simulation. It is based on the probabilistic classification of subsets of reference data, conditioned on macroscopic variables. This method is used to formulate a parameterization that is stochastic, taking the uncertainty of the unresolved scales into account. We validate our approach on the Lorenz 96 system, using two different parameter settings which are challenging for parameterization methods.