A novel spatial–temporal space heating and hot water demand method for expansion analysis of district heating systems

Highlight• Spatial-temporal method for assessing district heating expansion in cities. • Spatial analysis consider domestic hot water besides space heating demand. • Hourly intervals of hot water and space heating demand are modelled in the analysis. • Hourly, daily, weekly and seasonal variations of hot water demand are considered. • The results show that hot water contributes significantly to the district heating. The fourth generation of district heating will play a significant role in the decarbonization of energy systems. In general, only space heating demand is considered when assessing the district heating potential, excluding hot water. In contrast, the hot water demand accounts for up to 18% of total final energy demand in buildings. Hence, in this paper, a spatial–temporal method for annual hot water demand is considered in conjunction with space heating demand while technically and economically assessing the expansion potential of the district heating. A bottom-up heat demand mapping process was carried out for Pristina city to identify the space heating demand of buildings, while a top-down approach was used for spatial mapping of hot water demand. Hourly, daily, weekly and seasonal hot water demand profiles, besides heating degree-day method used for space heating, were considered when estimating the temporal operation of district heating. The findings show that the existing district heating can be increased four times when excluding hot water and five times when considering both space heating and hot water demand of buildings. Moreover, the heat supply capacities needed in district heating to cover space heating and hot water demand would be 600 MW and 70 MW respectively.