Energy supply and demand outlook after the Fukushima accident

The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ) made long-term forecasts on the world energy supply and demand situation up to 2035, with particular focus on Asia, in the wake of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident. This paper reports the major prediction results of energy demand and CO2 emissions forecasts. The world's primary energy consumption will grow at a rate of 1.6% per annum during the period 2009-2035, from 11,200 Mtoe (million tons of oil equivalent) to 17,300 Mtoe. CO2 emission will increase from 29.1 Gt in 2009 to 42.7 Gt in 2035. In the Technologically Advanced Scenario, where advanced low-carbon technologies become widely deployed around the world, CO2 emission will be reduced by 14.1 Gt or 33%, about half of which is due to reduction in Asian countries. Supportive measures concerning technology transfer and establishment of efficiency standards is important to realize potential for CO2 emissions reduction as well as to enhance energy security. (author)