Big questions cloud Iraq's future role in world oil market

This paper reports that Iraq raises questions for the world oil market beyond those frequently asked about when and under what circumstances it will resume exports. Two wars since 1981 have obscured encouraging results from a 20 year exploration program that were only beginning to come to light when Iraq invaded Kuwait in August 1990. Those results indicate the country might someday be able to produce much more than the 3.2 million b/d it was flowing before a United Nations embargo blocked exports. If exploratory potential is anywhere near what officials asserted in the late 1980s, and if Iraq eventually turns hospitable to international capital, the country could become a world class opportunity for oil companies as well as an exporter with productive capacity approaching that of Saudi Arabia. But political conditions can change quickly. Under a new, secular regime, Iraq might welcome non-Iraqi oil companies and capital as essential to economic recovery. It's a prospect that warrants a new industry look at what the country has revealed about its geology and exploration history