In Search of the Nuclear Taboo. Past, Present, and Future

One of the most puzzling - if positive - phenomena of the past half century is the non-use of nuclear weapons. The puzzle relates to the absence of use despite the demonstrated technical effectiveness of the weapon, the enormous size of nuclear weapons stockpiles globally, the spread of nuclear weapons to states in most regions of the world, the centrality of nuclear weapons in the strategic doctrines and operational war plans of a growing number of states with very different cultures, political systems, and military traditions, and the observation of the tradition of non-use despite the lack of international legal prohibitions - unlike those in place with respect to chemical and biological weapons. This essay seeks to probe the underpinnings of nuclear weapons restraint, the strength and durability of the so-called nuclear 'taboo' - especially in light of the rise of non-states actors who covet nuclear weapons for purposes other than deterrence - and the most likely paths by which existing restraints might be breached, broken, or dissolved. Particular emphasis is placed on alternative futures as a number of other studies, including several important new volumes, have explored in depth the sources of non-use. (author)