Adaptation potential to climate change of the Peribonka River (Quebec, Canada) water resources system

This study investigated the influence of climatic change on the Peribonka water resources system. The impacts of climatic change on hydroelectric power reservoir operations in the region were assessed using a set of operating rules optimized for future hydrological regimes. Thirty climate change projections from 5 climate models, 2 greenhouse gas (GHG) scenarios, and 3 temporal horizons were used in the study. Climatic change projections were then downscaled using the Delta approach and coupled to a stochastic weather generator developed to account for natural variabilities in local climates. A lumped hydrological model was used to simulate future hydrological regimes. A stochastic dynamic programming technique was then used to optimize reservoir operating rules for various time series of future river flows. The operating rules were then used in conjunction with a river system simulation tool in order to determine reservoir and hydroelectric production scenarios under different climatic change regimes. Results of the study showed significant increases in hydroelectricity production for most of the climate change projections. However, nonproductive spillage was also increased. Reservoir reliability was also reduced. tabs., figs