Stochastic analysis of groundwater flow and contaminant transport in a fractured rock system

It has been possible to develop a stochastic model for groundwater flow and mass transport in a fractured rock system. A large number of statistically independent realizations of a fracture network are generated from a set of probability distributions for parameters defining the fracture geometry. By solving for hydraulic head at the fracture intersections and using data on apertures and porosities, seepage velocities may be calculated and the transport equation solved for each trial of a Monte Carlo simulation. Model output consists of distributions of moving particles and various mass exit times. Applications illustrate the types of model results and the skewed character of particle distributions. 3 figures, 2 tables