Past and Future of the Kyoto Protocol. Final report

The present report reflects findings from a study on the realization of and prospects for the Kyoto Protocol. The purpose of the study was (1) to obtain insights into the factors that enabled the realization of the Kyoto Protocol, in particular the interactions among major parties involved; (2) to assess the future opportunities and threats of the Kyoto Protocol, in particular against the backdrop of an increasingly globalised world. The study was conducted from February up to December 2003 by (a) reviewing the literature, especially publications on the negotiation history of the Kyoto process, the social interactions enabling the realization of the Protocol, analyses of strengths and weaknesses, and future climate regimes; (b) conducting a series of interviews with representatives from government, academia, non-governmental organisations, and business, who have been - directly or indirectly - involved in the Kyoto process; (c) internal discussions,brainstorming and analysing the Protocol's strengths and weaknesses, possible future scenarios (including policy options), and the management of a possible failure of the Kyoto Protocol. The present report reflects and integrates the different sources. The first section deals with the past and the present. It discusses how the Kyoto Protocol could be realized despite the divergent interests, reflects on its architecture, and analyses major strengths and weaknesses. In the second section, we present possible future scenarios. We explore how different combinations of domestic and international commitment provide possible realities that national government may face when crafting climate policy. The third section provides an in-depth analysis of the possible event that the Kyoto Protocol fails. We discuss its definition and policy implications. The final section is reserved for overall conclusions and policy recommendations