Scenario analysis for the postclosure assessment of the canadian concept for nuclear fuel waste disposal

A systematic procedure was used to guide the identification and selection of scenarios for the postclosure assessment of the Canadian concept for nuclear fuel waste disposal. The procedure involves six steps: identify, classify and screen the important factors; then construct, screen and define in detail the scenarios. Application of the procedure identified four scenarios that will be evaluated quantitatively. They are a central scenario incorporating over 100 factors, and three alternative scenarios: the high-demand well, borehole seal failure, and combined scenarios. Many other factors and scenarios do not need to be assessed quantitatively because they cannot contribute significantly to the risk associated with the system over the required assessment period. 16 refs