A simulation-based analysis of transition pathways for the Dutch electricity system

Recent developments such as tighter national carbon budgets, changing economical competitiveness of the dominant fuels, new technologies, and changing end-user preferences constitute a backdrop of change for the Dutch electricity system. This study explores a range of plausible development trajectories for the system in terms of carbon emissions, fuel mix and prices with the currently employed policies and market setup. An agent-based simulation model is used in order to explore the dynamics of the system under eight different scenarios. The simulation experiments indicate the continuation of fossil fuel dominance as the energy source, and a shift from natural gas to coal seems likely in the base case. Even with CCS investments, such a development is demonstrated to cause a significant increase in carbon emissions beyond 2030, following two decades of almost-constant emission levels. In general, experiments indicate a very strong internal inertia in the system that is hard to overcome just by policies focusing on a single aspect of the system (e.g. demand, supply, or technology). It is also observed that significant reductions in carbon emissions can be attained as a joint outcome of increased green electricity demand, especially among large-scale end-users, and high carbon costs. - Highlights: ► A transition in the energy source is unlikely for the Dutch electricity system. ► Future capacity expansions in NL are likely to be dominated by coal-based generators. ► The character of the Dutch load creates a coal-friendly environment in generation. ► Carbon costs are transferred directly to end-users in NL due to the SDE program.