The GEMUF test: A new sequential test for detecting loss of material in a sequence of accounting periods

A new sequential test procedure to detect a loss of material in a sequence of accounting periods, called the GEMUF test, is introduced. The GEMUF (geschaetzter, or estimated, MUF) test is based on the theoretically best possible, but in practice inapplicable, Neyman-Pearson tests. The idea of the GEMUF test is to estimate the unknown loss pattern by a weighted sum of MUF values. The numerical results are obtained by Monte Carlo simulations for a reference reprocessing facility with a throughput of 1000 t of heavy metal per year. They demonstrate in comparison with other sequential test procedures that this new test gives results for all considered loss patterns that are very close to the best possible results of the Neyman-Pearson tests, i.e. the GEMUF test is 'robust' to various loss patterns. The investigations show also that the GEMUF test is very 'sensitive' by virtue of its short detection time. (author)