Manual estimation of fallout casualties. Final report

A method is described for enabling Emergency Operating Centers (EOCs) to estimate nuclear fallout casualties (fatalities and injuries) during and after nuclear attack without the aid of computers. This method is compatible with the current manual method for estimating initial weapons effects. The new technique requires that the EOCs have information on nuclear detonations and upper wind conditions and that they have maps, a protractor, map overlay material, grease pencils, worksheets, and pencils. In addition, they will need two tables of data and a fallout casualty (FC) template, all supplied in this report. Five steps are involved in the estimation of fallout casualties for an area: sketching fallout wind streamlines on a map overlay; plotting locations of nuclear detonations and their fallout streamlines; measuring crosswind and upwind distances to detonation points from the point of interest; reading radiation exposure tables and summing the contributions from different weapons to obtain the exposure at that point; and using the FC template with the protection factor profile for the area to estimate fatalities and injuries. The tables of radiation exposure are based on a modified Weapons Systems Evaluation Group-10 (WSEG-10) fallout model. The table of county protection factor profiles (PFPs) assumes a Community Shelter Plan (CSP) posture