The world enrichment market

The enrichment market can be divided into two periods: the near-term market (1991 to 1995) and the long-term market (1995 and beyond). The near-term market is characterized by limited unfilled requirements of 4% per year, to be supplied by national stockpiles and excess inventories. This low-cost material will be drawn down by about 1993, causing a subsequent price rise. As the price rises, primary supplier activity is expected to increase. In the near-term, two contracting activities are apparent: spot; and intermediate-term. The current spot market is expected to last until available low cost inventories are drawn down. Recently, in attempts to gain market share, suppliers have offered attractively priced intermediate-term (3 year) contracts for 1996 to 1998. While a small spot market will continue after 1995, it is anticipated that utilities will prefer a mix of medium- and long-term (5 to 10 year) contracts from primary suppliers for most of their enrichment requirements. As national stockpiles and utility inventories are consumed, low-cost supply available to the spot market is expected to diminish. Consequently, with little low-cost supply available, the only apparent source of material will be from primary suppliers, and the resulting competition over market share is expected to be intense. (author)