Empirical investigation on using wind speed volatility to estimate the operation probability and power output of wind turbines

Highlights: ► Ten-minute wind speed and power generation data of an offshore wind turbine are used. ► An ARMA–GARCH-M model is built to simultaneously forecast wind speed mean and volatility. ► The operation probability and expected power output of the wind turbine are predicted. ► The integrated approach produces more accurate wind power forecasting than other conventional methods. - Abstract: In this paper, we introduce a quantitative methodology that performs the interval estimation of wind speed, calculates the operation probability of wind turbine, and forecasts the wind power output. The technological advantage of this methodology stems from the empowered capability of mean and volatility forecasting of wind speed. Based on the real wind speed and corresponding wind power output data from an offshore wind turbine, this methodology is applied to build an ARMA–GARCH-M model for wind speed forecasting, and then to compute the operation probability and the expected power output of the wind turbine. The results show that the developed methodology is effective, the obtained interval estimation of wind speed is reliable, and the forecasted operation probability and expected wind power output of the wind turbine are accurate