The greenhouse effect in central North America: If not now, when?

The consistency of the predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) with observed data are discussed, with reference to statistical models and Monte-Carlo simulation. Climate change projections for North America predict increases of temperature of 2-4 degree C by 2030. Analysis of the climate record over the last 95 years has failed to indicate statistically significant changes. Statistical models using auto-regressive moving-average techniques have been developed to calculate the likelihood that the greenhouse signal may have been masked by natural climate variability, and have indicated that there is a high probability that changes have been masked. However, some projections, such as the increase in ratio of winter to summer precipitation, should have been detected. The probability of not detecting temperature changes as large as projected range from 5% for large temperature increases to 65% for smaller increases, depending on the scenario. These results suggest that the projections of large increases in temperature of 3-4 degree C are inconsistent with past observation. It will likely take 15-20 years beyond 1990 before summer temperature increases would be detected, and over 40 years before summer precipitation decreases would be detected, assuming IPCC projections are basically correct. 13 refs., 3 figs., 4 tabs