Energy technology in the area of tension between climate policy and liberalisation

The central question in this report is: how do climate change policies on the one hand and the liberalisation of energy markets on the other hand influence the role of new energy technology? To address this question, technological, economical and societal aspects have been studied. With regard to technological aspects a list is made of technologies which could become important when a 50% reduction of annual Dutch CO2 emission must be realized in the year 2050. For each of these technologies, future energy efficiencies are estimated. Using these figures, three 'blue prints' of the energy supply system in 2050 are described. In two of these blueprints the energy infrastructure changes drastically, in that electricity or hydrogen becomes the dominant final energy carrier in all end-use sectors. In the third blueprint the current final energy carriers (methane, electricity and gasoline/diesel) maintain their dominant position. With regard to economical aspects, 14 interviews were held with representatives of a wide range of companies in the energy sector, focusing on the role of technology in the company strategy. With regard to societal aspects, a number of important energy technologies are analysed in terms of how much societal support or resistance can be expected when these technologies are implemented on a large scale. Also representatives of two environmental organisations and a consumer organisation were interviewed. 75 refs