Probabilistic models for cable tray fires

A probabilistic model for determining the time-dependent severity of a nuclear power plant compartment fire is proposed. The model is developed by analysing the frequency of the loss of two electrical divisions in the cable spreading room. The methodology requires the use of a physical model for fire, analysis of the uncertainties in this model due to statistical and state-of-knowledge uncertainties, a model for fire suppression and a model for the failure of cables due to thermal effects. (author)