FFSM, Long-Term Nuclear Waste Repository Site Simulation by Monte-Carlo

1 - Description of program or function: FFSM (Far Field State Model) predicts the approximate geologic and climatic state of a site for a nuclear waste repository over relatively long periods of time. The purpose of FFSM is to represent quantitatively certain events and processes that could alter the effectiveness of one or more natural barriers in a waste isolation system. The barriers treated by the model are primarily components of the geologic environment surrounding the repository, although biosphere components (e.g. climate parameters) that could affect the impact of radionuclide releases are also considered. These components are treated outside the realm of wastes or repository-induced effects, which is indicated by use of the term far field. The model treats both natural and man-induced changes in these barriers within a probabilistic framework, and it accounts for cumulative and interactive effects of multiple phenomena. 2 - Method of solution: Fifteen submodels are included in FFSM to account for phenomena that may be of importance individually or in combination in evaluating sites for repositories. These submodels include: undetected features, climate, worldwide glaciation, local glaciation, folding, salt dispersion, magmatic events, faulting, biosphere state, regional deformation, geomorphic processes, dissolution fronts, localized dissolution (breccia pipes), solution mining, and drilling. FFSM can be used in both a deterministic mode, to evaluate interactions or to calculate point values, and a probabilistic mode, to make statistical estimates of future changes. In the probabilistic mode, Monte Carlo simulation is used to generate output probabilities, based on user-supplied input, largely in the form of probability density functions for variable or uncertain parameters