Analytical procedures. Pt. 4

The semi-analytical procedures are summarized under the heading 'first or second-order reliability method'. The asymptotic aggravation of the theory was repeatedly hinted at. In supporting structures the probability of outage of components always is also a function of the condition of all other components. It depends moreover on the stress affecting mostly all components. This fact causes a marked reduction of the effect of redundant component arrangements in the system. It moreover requires very special formulations. Although theoretically interesting and practically important developments will leave their mark on the further progress of the theory, the statements obtained by those approaches will continue to depend on how closely the chosen physical relationships and stoachstic models can come to the scatter quantities. Sensitivity studies show that these are partly aspects of substantially higher importance with a view to decision criteria than the refinement of the (probabilistic) method. Questions of relevance and reliability of data and their adequate treatment in reliability analyses seem to rank higher in order of sequence than exaggerated demands on methodics. (orig./HP)