A study of electricity demand forecasting models

Electricity demand forecast is a very important part in the study of the expansion of electric power generating systems. This paper reviews the forecasting methods which have been used in the electric department of the People's Republic of China and proposes a forecasting model as an aid to the conventional electricity forecasting methods. The model is based on statistical data and includes a new methodology called the Grey System Forecasting Model. It is assumed that for the industrial sectors, the production outputs (in monetary value or in quantities) are known in the given forecasting years. Thus, the electricity demand can be obtained by analysing the trends of electricity consumption or by analysing the changes of electricity intensity of each industrial sector. Obviously, some differences exist between the results of these two approaches, so the Kalman Filtering Theory is used here in an attempt to find out a better result based on them. (author). 3 refs, 2 figs