Options for Bulgaria power system extension planning

Under the existing transition to market economy in Bulgaria, the planning of development of electricity generation is among the priorities of the national policy of restructuring and renovation of electricity system in the country. Optimal plans for development of the generation capacity are worked out by means of optimization procedure part of ENPEP package (ELECTRIC module) based on the dynamic programming technique. The optimal plans study three main strategies for development of energy capacities, which have to do with the priority of some type of natural resources--Coal, Natural Gas and Nuclear Energy. The Hydro Power Plant construction and loading schedule for each scenario is different and it harmonized with the maneuverability of other capacities. Coal scenario emphasizes the opportunities for the maximizing of local coal mining, substitution of black coal (energy and coke) import by mining of local coal fields and implementation of efficient and environmentally sound technologies when constructing new thermal power plants. Gas scenario envisages natural gas consumption within the limit of existing capacities of the national and transit pipelines. In this connection, the share of the new generating capacities using combined cycle increases their share. Nuclear scenario assumes increased share of the nuclear units at the expense of local coal mining and natural gas. This is due to the rehabilitation of 1,000 MW units in NPP Kozloduy, completion of a 1,000 MW unit in new NPP and construction of 1--2 new units 600 MW after 2010. The data obtained outlines the perspectives for development of energy generation capacities in Bulgaria for the period 2000--2020, tendencies in the generation structure and the share of each different type of generation units in the structure of electricity generation system. Output information serves as a sound base for conclusions on the advantages and disadvantages of the three strategies