Total output operation chart optimization of cascade reservoirs and its application

Highlights: • We propose a new double nested model for cascade reservoirs operation optimization. • We use two methods to extract the output distribution ratio. • The adopted two methods perform better than the widely used methods at present. • Stepwise regression method performs better than mean value method on the whole. - Abstract: With the rapid development of cascade hydropower stations in recent decades, the cascade system composed of multiple reservoirs needs unified operation and management. However, the output distribution problem has not yet been solved reasonably when the total output of cascade system obtained, which makes the full utilization of hydropower resources in cascade reservoirs very difficult. Discriminant criterion method is a traditional and common method to solve the output distribution problem at present, but some shortcomings cannot be ignored in the practical application. In response to the above concern, this paper proposes a new total output operation chart optimization model and a new optimal output distribution model, the two models constitute to a double nested model with the goal of maximizing power generation. This paper takes the cascade reservoirs of Li Xianjiang River in China as an instance to obtain the optimal total output operation chart by the proposed double nested model and the 43 years historical runoff data, progressive searching method and progressive optimality algorithm are used in solving the model. In order to take the obtained total output operation chart into practical operation, mean value method and stepwise regression method are adopted to extract the output distribution ratios on the basis of the optimal simulation intermediate data. By comparing with discriminant criterion method and conventional method, the combined utilization of total output operation chart and output distribution ratios presents better performance in terms of power generation and assurance rate, which proves it is an effective alternative method to deal with the cascade reservoirs joint operation problem