World energy resources, demand and supply of energy, and the prospects for the fast breeder reactor

In the past it was taken for granted that the prime role of fast breeder reactors was to complement light water reactors, mainly because of their similar and compatible fuel cycles. In particular, the plutonium converted in LWRs is most intelligently disposed of and used in FBRs. Evaluation of the time horizon of such reactor strategies generally extended only to the year 2000. It is important to realize, however, that the salient task in the breeder field after 2000 - besides electricity generation - will be to substitute for conventional ''cheap'' oil. Electricity today makes up only 10% to 12% of the total secondary energy, while liquids essentially command up to about 50%. Thus the future application of the FBR technology will have to be geared more to the production of a liquid secondary energy carrier than to electricity. A new yardstick for all these considerations is the strongly rising energy prices. They may double, for example, leading to an oil price of US 24/bbl. Under these circumstances it is prudent to generalize the scope for future fast breeders. The key element of such a new fast breeder strategy would be the production of hydrogen by electrolysis or thermolysis or a combination of both. For example, methanol synthesized from hydrogen and residual fossil fuels would thus become economically attractive. The FBR breeding gain, on the other hand, would be used for the continued supply of LWRs generating electricity. The paper identifies order-of-magnitude considerations most important for such a fast breeder application against a global energy demand scenario for the year 2030. (author)