A fuzzy logic decision support system for open source information analysis in a non-proliferation framework

In the strengthened safeguards framework, information analysis has gained renewed attention. With the entry into force of the Additional Protocol, increasing amounts of information need to be analysed in order to assess States' compliance with their safeguards undertakings. The analysis basically consists in cross-checking States' declarations, inspection results and open source information at State level. Here, a decision support system is proposed, which provides a synthesis of open source information. It is comprised of three modules: an input module, where information is translated in a computable form; an aggregation module for its synthesis following an original fuzzy logic methodology; and the output module giving an overall view of the proliferation capabilities reached at State level. The aggregation methodology builds upon IAEA proliferation indicators and takes into consideration both the reliability of the information sources and the relevance of the indicators. (author)