Analysis of the international market for the decommissioning of nuclear facilities. Status and outlook

The reactor disaster in Fukushima, Japan, in 2011 led to a reassessment of the risks associated with the use of nuclear energy in many countries worldwide. In Germany, for example, it was subsequently decided to prematurely shut down eight power reactors and to phase out the use of nuclear energy for commercial electricity generation by 2022. In other countries, too, operation has been stopped and many operators are facing increasing costs for continued operation due to technical retrofitting. In addition, 60 percent of all reactors in operation worldwide are 30 years and older, bringing many nuclear facilities to the end of their design operating life. The decommissioning of these plants is therefore becoming increasingly important. The number of nuclear facilities to be decommissioned over the next 10 years is examined in this study. In addition, it is investigated how attractive the resulting decommissioning markets for nuclear facilities are or will be from the point of view of decommissioning companies. The remaining operating lives of the individual reactors are often not fixed and procedures in the decommissioning process differ, so that it is unclear at what point in time dismantling work can begin. For this reason, this study analyses the framework conditions of the 17 countries with the most nuclear facilities worldwide in order to derive the times of each individual reactor and thus the market potential of a country from the individual conditions. For countries with a high market potential, their market attractiveness with regard to the decommissioning of nuclear facilities is then examined and analysed using various criteria. It shows that in many western countries measures are carried out to extend the life of nuclear facilities. After power operation, direct dismantling is generally favoured over safe confinement. Post-operation phases to prepare for decommissioning can last between one year and ten years. The scenario technique shows that within the next 10 years between 69 and 103 reactors will be dismantled in 14 countries, which will cost up to 100 billion euros. In France, Germany, the USA, Japan, Russia and Sweden the potential is particularly high, whereas in Great Britain and Canada, for example, no plants will be dismantled in the foreseeable future. The 14 countries with the greatest market potential will also be examined on the basis of macro- and microeconomic factors, their specific market entry barriers and the political environment. The results of these studies show that Europe and APAC in particular will offer interesting opportunities for market entry. Many of today's leading countries in the nuclear industry are characterised by a politically unfavourable situation for the decommissioning of nuclear facilities and a high level of domestic competition. Especially smaller countries are identified as particularly attractive. Here in particular, there are good opportunities for specialised dismantling companies to establish themselves in the market. Spain, Germany and South Korea have been identified as the most attractive countries for market entry. Russia and Japan can be described as unattractive mainly because of their existing market structure.