Risk assessment for long-term post-accident sequences

Probabilistic risk analysis, currently conducted by the CEA (French Atomic Energy Commission) for the French replicate series of 900 MWe power plants, has identified accident sequences requiring long-term operation of some systems after the initiating event. They have been named long-term sequences. Quantification of probabilities of such sequences cannot rely exclusively on equipment failure-on-demand data: it must also take into account operating failures, the probability of which increase with time. Specific studies have therefore been conducted for a number of plant systems actuated during these long-term sequences. This has required: - Definition of the most realistic equipment utilization strategies based on existing emergency procedures for 900 MWe French plants. - Evaluation of the potential to repair failed equipment, given accessibility, repair time, and specific radiation conditions for the given sequence. - Definition of the event bringing the long-term sequence to an end. - Establishment of an appropriate quantification method, capable of taking into account the evolution of assumptions concerning equipment utilization strategies or repair conditions over time. The accident sequence quantification method based on realistic scenarios has been used in the risk assessment of the initiating event loss of reactor coolant accident occurring at power and at shutdown. Compared with the results obtained from conventional methods, this method redistributes the relative weight of accident sequences and also demonstrates that the long term can be a significant contribution to the probability of core melt