Mathematical simulation for safety assessment of nuclear waste repositories

Mathematical models are being developed as part of the Waste Isolation Safety Assessment Program (WISAP) for assessing the post-closure safety of nuclear waste storage in geologic formations. The objective of this program is to develop the methods and data necessary to determine potential events that might disrupt the integrity of a waste repository and provide pathways for radionuclides to reach the bioshpere, primarily through groundwater transport. Four categories of mathematical models are being developed to assist in the analysis of potential release scenarios and consequences: (1) release scenario analysis models; (2) groundwater flow models; (3) contaminant transport models; and (4) radiation dose models. The development of the release scenario models is in a preliminary stage; the last three categories of models are fully operational. The release scenario models determine the bounds of potential future hydrogeologic changes, including potentially disruptive events. The groundwater flow and contaminant transport models compute the flowpaths, travel times, and concentrations of radionuclides that might migrate from a repository in the event of a breach and potentially reach the biosphere. The dose models compute the radiation doses to future populations. Reference site analyses are in progress to test the models for application to different geologies, including salt domes, bedded salt, and basalt