Towards a quantitative model to predict the toxicity/pathogenicity potential of mineral fibers

Highlights: • The FPTI model calculates the potential toxicity/pathogenicity of mineral fibers. • The model applies to asbestos, unclassified and synthetic fibers and possibly EMP. • Different toxicity potentials are found for amphibole, erionite and chrysotile. • FPTI was calculated for 'safe' mineral fibers such as wollastonite and sepiolite. Some mineral fibers represent a health hazard because they are classified as cancer-causing chemical/physical toxicants upon (chronic) dust inhalation. Although in the last decades they have been the subject of intensive multidisciplinary investigations, the mechanisms by which mineral fibers induce toxic and pathogenic adverse effects on human health and environment are not yet fully understood. The major intricacy of the biological approach that prevents the design of a conclusive shared model of behavior of mineral fibers in a biological system stems from their very nature with intrinsic variability in chemical, molecular, structural and morphometric parameters, biodurability and surface reactivity. This paper presents the first attempt to devise a quantitative predictive model of toxicity/pathogenicity of minerals fibers based on their physical/chemical and morphological parameters. Although the author is aware that all parameters should be measured in comparable in vivo systems that accurately simulate the lung and or pleural environment, this preliminary model was conceived to deliver a fiber potential toxicity/pathogenicity index (FPTI) to be integrated with the biological approach so to create a quantitative predictive model of behavior of mineral fibers in a biological system. The FPTI model is thought to be a predictive tool aimed at ranking the toxicity and pathogenicity potential of fibers like asbestos or unregulated/unclassified mineral fibers. It may eventually be applied to other materials like man-made synthetic fibers and elongated mineral particles (EMP). Work is in progress to revise and validate the model in joint collaboration with international competent organizations, and to deliver a FPTI model-based user-friendly code.