High performance simulations for transformational earthquake risk assessments

Earthquakes occurring around the world are responsible for extensive loss of life and infrastructure damage. On average, 1100 earthquakes with significant damage potential occur world-wide per year, and a major societal challenge is to design a human environment that contains appropriate earthquake resistance. Design of critical infrastructure such as large buildings, bridges, industrial facilities and nuclear power plants in seismically active regions is a significant scientific and engineering challenge that encompasses the multiple disciplines of geophysics, geotechnical and structural engineering. Because of the great complexities in earthquake physical processes, traditional approaches to seismic hazard assessment have relied heavily on historical earthquake observations. In this approach, observational data from many locations is homogenized into an empirical assessment of earthquake hazard at any specific site of interest. With major advancements in high performance computing platforms and algorithms, it is now possible to utilize physics-based predictive models to gain enhanced insight about site-specific earthquake ground motions and infrastructure response. This paper discusses recent advancements in geophysics and infrastructure simulations and future challenges in implementing advanced simulations for both earthquake hazard (future ground motions) and earthquake risk (infrastructure response and damage) assessments.