Peak oil and gas

Oil and gas were formed under exceptional conditions in the geological past, meaning that they are subject to natural depletion, such that the past growth in production must give way to decline. Although depletion is a simple concept to grasp, public data on the resource base are extremely unreliable due to ambiguous definitions and lax reporting. The oil industry is reluctant to admit to an onset of decline carrying obvious adverse financial consequences. There are several different categories of oil and gas, from tar sands to deep water fields, each with specific characteristics that need to be evaluated. It is important to build a global model on a country by country basis in order that anomalous statistics may be identified and evaluated. Such a study suggests that the world faces the onset of decline, with far-reaching consequences given the central role of oil-based energy. It is accordingly an important subject deserving detailed consideration by policy makers. (author)