Biomass for energy, food and materials in an industrial society of 10 billion people

In this paper we analyse the requirements of bioproductive land in a future industrial society of 10 billion people, with an average per capita economic standard comparable to that of the industrialized countries of today. Despite significantly more efficient technology, lowering demand for both energy and material per service delivered, requirement for food and material alone will call for a heavily increased demand bioproductive land for use in agriculture and forestry. Large areas of short rotation energy plantations may be biophysically possible, but will clearly compete for available bioproductive land with agriculture and silviculture, as well as with preservation of the world's biodiversity. Therefore, the notion that there exists large areas of surplus or degraded land, which, without coming in conflict with food production and preservation of biodiversity, can be used for large energy plantations has not fully taken into account possible increased demand for bioproductive land from global industrialization and the raising of the global average economic standard. (Author)