Supply assurance in the nuclear fuel cycle

Nuclear fuel assurance, in the face of world and political uncertainties, is interrelated with nuclear technology development plans and international safeguards considerations. This has led some countries to accelerate their commitments to nuclear commercialization faster than necessary and has made non-proliferation policies harder to enforce. Fuel assurance is described on a national basis in three time scales: short-term, or resilience to supply interruptions; mid-term, or contract conditions in which governments make commitments to purchase or deliver; and long-term, or resource adequacy. A review of former assurance problems and current trends in the enrichment and uranium markets indicates that supplier concentration is no longer the major problem so much as non-proliferation actions. The present state of unstable equilibrium is expected to move in the direction of less fuel-supply assurance for countries having a small market or not subscribing to non-proliferation criteria. The authors, while generally optimistic that the fuel-supply system will function, express concern that policies for fuel stockpiles and the condition of uranium markets need improvement. 21 references