Nuclear terrorism: How real is the threat?

After the end of the Cold War the threat of proliferation of weapons of mass destruction to non-state actors has increased and since non-territorial actors cannot be deterred as easily as states, new responses have to be found. The author offers a definition of nuclear terrorism which includes also attacks on, and sabotage of, nuclear reactors and the dispersal of radioactive waste, in addition to the possession or use of weapon-grade nuclear materials. It is held that the main bottleneck for would-be nuclear terrorists is not so much bomb design than access to nuclear material for which the territories of the former Soviet Union are a likely source, due to gaps in safety and security. The article discusses the smuggling of nuclear material from the former USSR's territories and lists seven possible methods of acquisition of nuclear materials by terrorists. The intentions of various types of groups to use weapons of mass destruction and their possible goals are analyzed and the question whether or not Osama Bin Laden has acquired nuclear materials is raised. A discussion of possible motivations for nuclear terrorism by non-state actors and a listing of facilitating and inhibiting factors with regard to terrorist use of weapons of mass destruction lead to the conclusion that nuclear terrorism by non-state actors is still a low probability event but that no risks can be taken and that a broad action plan to counter the threat is needed whereby the IAEA should stand in the forefront. (author)