The forecast model for estimating the probability of failure at starting emergency diesel generators of nuclear power plants

The main factors that can influence the probable failure of emergency startup of diesel generators at nuclear power plants are analyzed. These factors are defined as general indicators of the state of equipment and service systems, as well as extreme modes for performing basic functions in the case of emergency blackout. A forecast model for estimating the probability of the startup failure of diesel generators at nuclear power plants in emergency blackouts is developed. The proposed model allows for taking into account the main impact factors and can be improved in the process of accumulation of reliability statistics. An example of calculating the probability of startup failures of diesel generators for the determined baseline conditions. (paper)