Natural gas markets in Asia: from callow youth to maturity

In the 1980s, Asian energy markets expanded at a rapid rate to meet the surge in demand from Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. This demand boom coincided with an increase in non-OPEC oil production in the region. As oil production stabilizes, demand looks set to rise sharply, this time in the new Newly Industrialized Countries of Southeast Asia, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia. Natural gas will play a key role in this expansion of energy use and could start to lead rather than follow oil markets. The leading role of natural gas will be especially strong if gas starts to make inroads in the high and middle ends of the barrel with oxygenated gasoline and compressed natural gas for trucks. At the bottom of the barrel, natural gas could increasingly usurp the role of residual fuel oil for environmental reasons. At the same time, regional refiners could find that residual oil is their leading source of additional feed for the new process units currently under discussion or planning. The supply outlook for natural gas is increasingly fraught with uncertainties as more of the region's supplies must come from distant areas. In particular, liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies from Malaysia and Indonesia will need to be replaced by the early part of the next century as rising domestic demand eats into the exportable gas production. New sources include China, Siberia, Sakhalin Island, Papua New Guinea, and Canada. There will be intense competition to supply the Northeast Asia markets as the gas production in Southeast Asia is increasingly used within ASEAN. (author)