How lethal are explosions and toxic escapes

The number of fatalities likely to arise from the realisation of the hazards of explosives, toxic releases, and clouds of flammable vapours may be predicted from a study of past incidents and a mortality index is developed for a number of agents. For accidental explosions of conventional explosives the mortality index (mean number of fatalities per tonne) declines as the size of the incident increases and appears to be a function of the inverse square of the mass. Attention is called to the bias in the statistics arising from the relatively large number of small incidents which pass unrecorded, especially if not attended by fatal results. The bias is in the direction of exaggerating the mortality index for small incidents. (author)