Ex-USSR: Oil exporter or importer?

Political disintegration and economic perestroika in the former Soviet Union (FSU) have major international ramifications and some of these can be found in the oil sector. An overview is presented of the FSU oil industry, including the conditions preceding and following the breakup. Early effects of the breakup included shortages of liquid fuels and the introduction of a strict export quota and license system. The likelihood of disruptions in oil exports, caused by political clashes between Russia and the other oil-transporting republics is low. Rapid decentralization of the Soviet oil trade is likely to bring forth currency-starved national exporters that may add substantially to international market competition and further undercut unstable world oil prices. In the short term, the FSU oil industry will suffer from inevitable imbalances which will manifest themselves in regional oil shortages and gluts spreading towards neighbouring international markets. In the medium and longer term the cooperating parts will become more self-reliant or infrastructurally independent and will speed natural growth and integration into neighbouring petroleum markets. Crude oil and oil product balances of the FSU republics are presented. 2 refs., 2 figs., 7 tabs