Electricity price, energy production and emissions impact : evaluating proposed GHG emission reduction frameworks for the Alberta electricity industry : updated reference case and sensitivity results prepared for CASA EPT Greenhouse Gas Allocation Subgroup

This document presents the results of a study which quantified the potential impact of various greenhouse gas (GHG) policy scenarios on Alberta generators' energy production, airborne emissions and electricity wholesale market price. The study examined proactive policy frameworks compared to business as usual scenarios. A reference case scenario was included to represent the status quo environment where electricity demand continues on its current path. Five additional sensitivity cases were examined, of which 3 evaluated the impact of many key assumptions regarding progressive GHG reduction levels and costs related to meeting GHG requirements. The other two evaluated an all-coal future electricity supply both with and without GHG emission reduction costs. Environmental costs were also evaluated in terms of emissions of nitrous oxides, sulphurous oxides, mercury and particulate matter. The impact of generation retirement and renewable energy source development was also analyzed. Demand and supply forecasts for oil, natural gas, electric energy and energy sales were presented along with generation supply forecasts for the reference case scenario, coal generation and natural gas fired retirements. refs., tabs., figs