Effects of wind shear on the consequence model of the reactor safety study

The effects of explicit incorporation of wind shear into the consequence model of the Reactor Safety study have been investigated. The integral of exposure (X/Q) over area is unchanged by directional shear and decreased by speed shear. Consequence model predictions of early fatalities are always decreased by wind shear. Where early fatalities are decreased, survivors are subject to latent effects and, therefore, latent effects increase. However, aggregate early fatalities and latent effects always are decreased. Because the magnitude of these changes is within the present uncertainties of the consequence model, explicit incorporation of wind shear in the consequence model is not now warranted