Nuclear power: Year 2000

This paper offers a contrary view on the future of nuclear power in the U.S. Contrarian, in that it argues that it is quite possible that the installed U.S. nuclear capacity in the year 2000 will be in the range of 250GWe. This projection is based on the longer view - a 20-30 year picture - of the price trends of the fuels commercially available to make electricity. And on the belief that other projections of nuclear capacity for the year 2000, while generally acknowledging the need to add significant amounts of new electricity capacity, are essentially discounting nuclear power. And thus, are ignoring fundamental economics. The logic for the projected 250 GWe follows: The demand for electricity is continuing to grow, albeit at a slower rate than that experienced prior to 1973; The excess generating capacity in the construction pipeline, which developed during the 1970s as economic growth rates came in at half the projections made in 1973, has been worked off; in fact, the pendulum has swung past the mid-point; U.S. utilities need to order an additional 200-350 GWe of capacity for service between 1992 and 2000; The real capital costs of plants, particularly nuclear plants, ordered in the 1980s will be less than that being completed today, as this new plant will be completed on a more expedient basis for reliability reasons, and built in an improved financial climate for utilities; Owing primarily to more favorable economics, but also to environmental considerations, at least half of new generating capacity will be nuclear