Trends between 1973 and 1988: Summary and key issues

The preceding chapters considered the evolution of activity, structure, energy intensity, and energy use between the early 1970s and 1988 for the manufacturing, transportation, residential, and service sectors. In this chapter, the author summarizes the changes that have taken place, and presents results of a cross-sectoral analysis of the effect of change in sectoral activity, structure, and energy intensity on energy use in the three largest OECD economies: the United States, Japan, and West Germany. He also addresses a number of key issues that have important implications for future energy use in the OECD countries and elsewhere. Between 1973 and 1988, final energy use in the five sectors studied (which account for around 90% of total energy use) grew by 3% in the United, States, 15% in Japan, and 3% in West Germany. Energy use in manufacturing declined by 10-20% in each country. Energy use for passenger travel grew by only 11% in the United States, but rose by 76% in Japan and by 56% in West Germany. There was moderate to strong growth in freight energy use in all three countries. There was very high growth in residential and services energy use in Japan, and moderate growth in these sectors in the United States and West Germany. 12 refs., 5 figs., 3 tabs