Development of a framework for the assessment of the market penetration of novel in situ bitumen extraction technologies

Highlights: • The analysis focuses on oil sands extraction technologies. • A new combined method is developed and used for market penetration modeling. • Efficient in situ bitumen mining technologies shares are modeled from 2020 to 2050. • Effects of carbon price on energy efficiency improvement are analyzed. • Annual energy efficient improvement is evaluated. Greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation opportunities from emerging in situ mining technologies in oil sands production can play a role in reducing global warming. There is limited research on quantitative assessments of the penetration of emerging oil sands technology in the energy sector. This study addresses this gap by developing a novel framework (MAPL-OET) to assess the market penetration of emerging oil sands extraction technologies. The framework is robust and data-intensive as it combines diffusion models, econometrics models, cost models, and energy-economy equilibrium models. The combined model evaluates the adoption of new energy technologies resulting from carbon price measures and other economic factors, as well as the GHG mitigation potential in the oil sands sector. The accumulated GHG mitigation potential from high carbon and BAU scenarios (i.e., a carbon price of $30/tonne of CO₂ in 2030, increasing at a rate of 4%/yr to reach about $105/tonne of CO₂) was estimated to be 192.8 Mt of CO₂ eq between 2018 and 2050. New extraction technologies also improve average energy intensities by 1.3% annually in the high carbon price scenarios. The developed new framework can help public and private organizations to achieve energy or environmental targets.