Non-optimum temperature-related mortality burden in China: Addressing the dual influences of climate change and urban heat islands

Highlights: • Temperature-related deaths reached 1.19 million in 2010 with spatial variations. • Avoided cold-related deaths are more than raised heat-related ones as climate change. • By 2050, temperature-related deaths will drop to 1.08–1.17 million except SSP3. • Non-optimum temperature-related deaths under RCP8.5 are 2.35% higher than RCP4.5. • The UHI avoided 3493 deaths in 2000 but increase 6951–17,041 deaths in 2050. Under the dual effects of climate change and urban heat islands (UHI), non-optimum temperature-related mortality burdens are complex and uncertain, and are rarely discussed in China. In this study, by applying city-specific exposure-response functions to multiple temperature and population projections under different climate and urbanization scenarios, we comprehensively assessed the non-optimum temperature-related mortality burdens in China from 2000 to 2050. Our results showed that temperature-related deaths will decrease from 1.19 million in 2010 to 1.08–1.17 million in 2050, with the exception of the most populous scenario. Excess deaths attributable to non-optimal temperatures under representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) were 2.35% greater than those under RCP4.5. This indicates that the surge in heat-related deaths caused by climate change will be offset by the reduction in cold-related deaths. As the climate changes, high-risk areas will be confronted with more severe health challenges, which requires health protection resource relocation strategies. Simultaneously, the net effects of UHIs are beneficial in the historical periods, preventing 3493 (95% CI: 22–6964) deaths in 2000. But UHIs will cause an additional 6951 (95% CI: −17,637–31,539, SSP4-RCP4.5) to 17,041 (95% CI: −10,516–44,598, SSP5-RCP8.5) deaths in 2050. The heavier health burden in RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 indicates that a warmer climate aggravates the negative effects of UHIs. Considering the synergistic behavior of climate change and UHIs, UHI mitigation strategies should not be developed without considering climate change. Moreover, the mortality burden exhibited strong spatial variations, with heavy burdens concentrated in the hotspots including Beijing-Tianjin Metropolitan Region, Yangtze River Delta, Chengdu-Chongqing City Group, Guangzhou, Wuhan, Xi'an, Shandong, and Henan. These hotspots should be priority areas for the allocation of the national medical resources to provide effective public health interventions.