US oil dependency: 1973-1997

This piece examines the behavior of US oil imports since the first oil shock, and compares with other big importers Europe and Japan. The relative share of Persian Gulf oil in foreign supply to the US is explained in terms of ''swing supplier'', and is shown to evolve in direct relation with the imports themselves: up when they are growing; down when imports go down. This relation broke up at the beginning of the 1990: despite growing US imports, Gulf share is declining. The reason is a regionalization (meaning the pan-Americanization) of US oil imports: the share of Latin American (Mexican and Venezuelan) and Canadian oil is growing steadily at the expense of non American suppliers. Hence the papers questions the chance of a emancipation of the US from Gulf oil and its geopolitical consequences. We argue that even in the case of a complete regionalization of oil imports, US energy security would still depend on the stability in the Middle-East, because of the ''unified'' and global nature of the oil market. An emancipation of the US from the Gulf is not impossible (though certainly not certain) but an emancipation of the Gulf from the US is all but imminent. (author)