Very short-term wind speed prediction: A new artificial neural network-Markov chain model

As the objective of this study, artificial neural network (ANN) and Markov chain (MC) are used to develop a new ANN-MC model for forecasting wind speed in very short-term time scale. For prediction of very short-term wind speed in a few seconds in the future, data patterns for short-term (about an hour) and very short-term (about minutes or seconds) recorded prior to current time are considered. In this study, the short-term patterns in wind speed data are captured by ANN and the long-term patterns are considered utilizing MC approach and four neighborhood indices. The results are validated and the effectiveness of the new ANN-MC model is demonstrated. It is found that the prediction errors can be decreased, while the uncertainty of the predictions and calculation time are reduced.